Global Rice Shortage Is Set To Be Largest In Two Decades, Amidst Climate Action To Reduce Emissions

Rice, one of the largest food commodities traded each year, is now set to have its worst shortages in 20 years, at a time when food shortages and famine have really increased in modern times, amplified also by the Covid lockdowns and Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Rice is a critical food crop for the world. The World Food and Agriculture Organization says:

Rice is one of the most important staple foods in the world. Over 50 percent of the world population depends on rice for about 80 percent of its food requirements. About 95 percent of the global output of rice is produced and consumed in developing countries.

Analysts at Fitch Solutions, a large data and analyst firm, says that the global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, which the analysts told CNBC that a ‘deficit of this magnitude for one of the world’s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers,’ the network reported.

At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices.

Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households.

Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart said.

Prices are forecast to remain elevated at current rates until 2024, Fitch says; but also forecasts things will likewise normalize and balance out for the 2024-2025 season, saying, “We believe that the rice market will return to surplus in 2024/25 and then continue to loosen through the medium term.”

‘The price of rice averaged $17.30 per cwt through 2023 year-to-date, and will only ease to $14.50 per cwt in 2024, according to the report. Cwt is a unit of measurement for certain commodities such as rice,’ CNBC noted.

CNBC says that the Russia-Ukraine war and bad weather conditions in countries like China and Pakistan are to blame. Other counties like Canada and the United States have also been producing lower yields, on top of the worst drought Europe has faced in 20 years, MarketWatch added.

This comes at a time when rice farms around the world are looking to “decarbonize,” which ultimately result in a reduction of rice production.

SEE: Bill Gates And Agritech Companies Join To Decarbonize Rice In New Venture

AFP posted a tweet on April 16th discussing this move to reduce emissions in rice growing, but would later delete it. Nevertheless Summit News captured the tweet before it was zapped. The caption read:

Rice is to blame for around 10 percent of global emissions of methane, a gas that over two decades, traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide. Scientists say that if the world wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rice cannot be ignored.

AFP wrote

However, the accompanying video was reuploaded by Eagle News. The video discusses how ‘Vietnam has been showing efforts to reduce methane from rice cultivation by removing straw from the fields and turning it into mushrooms and organic fertilizer.’

The reasons for a rice shortage are simple: drought and dearth, and bad monsoon seasons in places like China; crippled and backlogged supply chains, exacerbated by nations realigning trade agreements due to the Russia-Ukraine war; and then these stupid green agendas that are going to cause a famine.

I have been warning all throughout last year (and prior to that) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war that massive famine and food shortages are being deliberately thrust upon us; compounded by terrible drought last year all over the world.

Famine is coming, and you must needs be preparing for that. Therefore, in this instance, buying up some extra rice might be prudent for you, especially if you like rice.